Appendix 1: Fingal Housing Strategy

Appendix 1: Fingal Housing Strategy

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Introduction

Under Section 94 of the Planning and Development Act 2000 (as amended) Fingal County Council is required to prepare a Housing Strategy for period 2017-2023. To ensure that the Housing Strategy is kept up to date, Planning Authorities must review and amend it, if required within 2 years of its preparation. This Strategy should also be reviewed where there is a change in housing requirements or in the housing market that could fundamentally affect the existing strategy. The key objectives of the Strategy are as follows:

  • To ensure Fingal County Council provides for the development of sufficient housing to meet its obligations as set out in the Regional Planning Guidelines
  • To identify the existing and likely future need for housing in the area of the Development Plan
  • To ensure that sufficient zoned lands are provided to meet the needs of the different categories of households
  • There have been considerable changes since 2008 in the Irish economy, in particular, affecting the construction industry and property market which have led to significant changes to Government housing policy and plans for the future supply of housing.
  • These changes are reflected in;
  • Housing Policy Statement issued by the Department of Environment and Local Government in 2013.
  • Housing Agency reviewed Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000 (as amended) was completed in July 2015.
  • The Urban Regeneration and Housing Act 2015.

Legislation

Part V of the Planning and Development Act 2000 (as amended), hereafter referred to as ‘The Act’, requires that all Planning Authorities prepare Housing Strategies and incorporate them into their Development Plans. Section 10(1A) of The Act requires that Development Plans include a Core Strategy which shows that the Plan is consistent with both the National Spatial Strategy and Regional Planning Guidelines. Planning Authorities are required to demonstrate that the Housing Strategy is aligned with the population projections contained in the Core Strategy and the Regional Planning Guidelines.

The Housing Strategy must include an analysis of demand and supply for the different sectors of the housing market, forecast future requirements and propose strategies to balance demand and supply in a sustainable manner.

In accordance with The Act there is a social housing requirement of 10% applicable to planning permissions for housing on all lands zoned solely for residential use, or for a mixture of residential and other uses, save in specified circumstances where an increased element may be acceptable.

The Act specifies, in particular, that the Housing Strategy shall:

  • Ensure that adequate zoned and serviced lands for residential purposes are available in appropriate locations to meet the requirements of the Housing Strategy and the existing and future housing demand – including social and affordable housing (This requirement has been superseded by the Core Strategy).
  • Ensure that housing is available to people of different income levels and determine the distribution of this housing.
  • Ensure that a mixture of house types and sizes is developed to reasonably match the requirements of the different categories of households, including the special requirements of elderly persons and persons with disabilities.
  • Counteract undue segregation in housing between people of different social backgrounds.
The Housing (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2009

The Housing (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2009 requires the preparation of Housing Services Plans and contains provisions on the assessment of social housing needs. It also revises the Housing Authority’s management and control powers and introduces antisocial behaviour strategies. It is the policy of Fingal County Council to increase the stock of social housing to meet the long term housing needs of those households on the local authority housing list.

The Urban Regeneration and Housing Act 2015

The Urban Regeneration and Housing Act 2015 was introduced in July 2015 and its purpose is to address housing supply related issues and to facilitate an increase in activity in the housing construction sector. The Act also supports the delivery of the Government's Construction 2020 – A Strategy for a Renewed Construction Sector and the Social Housing Strategy 2020. In addition specific amendments relating to the operation of Part V aim to:

  • Increase the economic viability of developments
  • Maximise the opportunity for the delivery of social housing units
  • Address weaknesses in aspects of the existing legislation identified in a number of court judgements
  • Secure the principle of integrated mixed tenure developments

In accordance with The Act there is a social housing requirement of 10% which will be applied to planning permissions for housing on all lands zoned solely for residential use, or for a mixture of residential and other uses, save in specified circumstances where an increased element may be acceptable.

Part V delivery options (Post Act 2015)

  • The transfer of ownership of lands, subject to the planning permission application to a local authority for the provision of social housing remains the default option. The land option must be acceptable to the local authority
  • The transfer of ownership to the local authority, or persons nominated, of completed social housing units on the land, subject to planning permission
  • The transfer of ownership to the local authority, or person nominated, of completed social housing units on other land, not subject to the planning permission. There is no longer a requirement for the developer to build housing units on other land to fulfil his/her Part V obligations. The developer might have a stock of suitable houses or he/she can simply acquire housing units for such purposes. This allows social housing units to be delivered in a more timely fashion in another location, in the event that the development that is the subject of the planning permission does not meet the social housing or mixed tenure needs of the local authority:
  • The Part V obligation can now be fulfilled by developers through long term leasing of properties: and
  • A combination of the Part V options above is also allowed

Part V options removed under The Act of 2015:

  • The option of transferring ownership to the Local Authority, or persons nominated, of fully or partially serviced sites on land, subject to the planning permission application:
  • The option of transferring ownership to the local authority of land within its functional area: other than the land subject to the planning permission application:
  • The option of transferring ownership to the local authority, or persons nominated, of fully or partially serviced sites on land, other than the land subject to the planning permission application: and
  • The option of providing a cash payment in lieu of social housing.

National and Regional Policy

The Government outlined its commitment to ensure that housing provision was sustainable and of high quality in its guidance documents ‘Delivering Homes, Sustaining Communities (2007), ‘Quality Housing for Sustainable Communities’ (2007).

The Department of Environment, Community and Local Government (DoECLG)’s ‘National Housing Strategy for People with a Disability’ (2011) outlines the Government strategy to address the housing needs of people with disabilities over the period 2011 to 2016. The Government’s Housing Policy Statement, also published in 2011, supports and further supplements the ‘National Housing Strategy for People with a Disability’ as part of a framework of initiatives to provide for the housing needs of vulnerable and disadvantaged households. It outlines a vision for the future of the housing sector in Ireland ‘based on choice, fairness, equity across tenures and on delivering quality outcomes for the resources invested’. The Housing Policy Statement stated that the Government was standing down all existing affordable housing programmes to reflect current affordability conditions.

The DoECLG Homeless Strategy National Implementation Plan (2008) states that the Strategy will be carried out primarily through the Local Homeless Action Plan process prepared under the Housing (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2009.

National Spatial Strategy (NSS)

The National Spatial Strategy 2002 – 2022 outlines the Government’s commitment to implementing long-term planning frameworks - taking account of the experience since 2002 and the new environmental, budgetary and economic challenges. There is a continuing emphasis on encouraging more sustainable patterns of urban and rural development. It is noted that the DoECLG have indicated that a comprehensive review and update of the NSS is underway in response to the country’s significantly changed economic landscape.

Regional Planning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Area 2010 – 2022

The Regional Planning Guidelines (RPG) for the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) 2010 - 2022 aim to direct and influence future growth of the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) over the medium-to -long term, and to give effect to the overarching strategic planning framework set out in the NSS.

In relation to rural housing, it advises that local authority policies need to ‘take account of the differing types of rural housing demands in varying rural contexts and be tailored accordingly’.

Social Housing Strategy 2020

The Social Housing Strategy was published on the 26th November 2014 and is based on a Three Pillars model that will strive to ensure every household can secure, quality housing suited to their needs at an affordable price in a sustainable community. The Three Pillars Strategy is as follows:

  • Pillar 1: Provision of New Social Housing Supply
  • Pillar 2: Providing Housing Supports Through the Private Rental Sector
  • Pillar 3: Reform Creating More Flexible and Responsive Social Housing Supports

The strategy aims to:

  1. Provide 35,000 new social housing units, over the period 2017-2023 to meet the additional social housing supply requirements.
  2. Support up to 75,000 households through an enhanced private rental sector;
  3. Reform social housing supports to create a more flexible and responsive system.

The strategy plans to deliver over two phases:

  • Phase 1 sets a target of 18,000 additional housing units and 32,000 Housing Assistance Payment (HAP)/Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS) units by end 2017.
  • Phase 2 sets a target of 17,000 additional housing units and 43,000 HAP/RAS units by end 2020.

Implications for the Fingal County Development Plan

Section 94 of the Planning and Development Act, 2000 outlines the criteria that the Planning Authority should have regard to when estimating the amount of housing required in the Plan area. The criteria include house prices, interest rates and the relationship between house prices, interest rates and income.

This Strategy endeavours to address the obligations set out in Section 94 and in accordance with the amended Part V options as set out in Urban Regeneration and Housing Act 2015 but all the time recognising and having regard to the rapidly changing and evolving housing landscape both nationally and locally.

The Council will employ a range of mechanisms to meet identified council needs i.e, a social housing building programme, acquisition, leasing, Housing Assistance Payments (HAP) scheme, Rental Accommodation Schemes (RAS) and the utilisation of existing housing stock.

Analysis of Housing Demand and Supply

Population

Fingal is the third largest administrative county in Ireland. Nearly 6% of the state's population now lives in the County. The population of Fingal in the 2011 Census was 273,991 persons, 21.5% of the total population of Dublin. Fingal’s share of the Dublin population has been rising steadily since 1986 when it was just 14% rising to 22% in the latest 2011 census.

Fingal Population 2002 -2011








 

2002

2006

2011

Increase

Increase %

Fingal

196,413

239,992

273,991

33,999

12.4%

Source: CSO Census 2011

Fingal household breakdown






Census 2011

Fingal Private Households

Persons in Provate Households

Average Number of Persons per Household

 

93,146

271,958

2.9

Source: CSO Census 2011

The 2011 Census indicated a continuing high growth rate in Fingal in spite of the slowdown in the economy and housebuilding in particular. This growth was due primarily to the high birth rate in the county and to the relatively low death rate. Immigration was also a factor although it is likely that much of this took place between 2006 and 2008.

The Regional Planning Guidelines projected population growth for the Fingal area over the period 2011-2022 as:

 






 

2011

2016

2022

Fingal

273,991

287,547

309,285

Settlement Strategy

The framework for Fingal’s Settlement Strategy is set out in the Regional Planning Guidelines. The Strategy is based on a differentiation of towns within the Metropolitan Area of the county and those within the Hinterland Area (these areas being defined at regional level). The thrust of the Settlement Strategy is to consolidate urban areas around the Dublin Gateway and integrate investment in infrastructure, in particular public transport, with land use planning.

Within the Metropolitan Area, Swords and Blanchardstown are targeted for the greatest growth in population, housing, retail and economic activity. These towns, described as metropolitan consolidation towns are envisaged as strong active urban places with strong transport links. In 2011, Swords had a population of 42,738 (Census 2011, Towns), representing growth of 13.5% since 2006. The wider Blanchardstown area had a population of approximately 100,000, based on the relevant Electoral Divisions. Donabate, on the edge of the Metropolitan Area, is identifiedas a Moderate Sustainable Growth Town which will act as a district growth centre with high quality linkages and increased densities at nodes on public transport corridors. It is recognised that Donabate will have a strong role as a commuter location and therefore growth needs to be related to the capacity of public transport connections and the capacity of social infrastructure. There are a number of other towns within the Metropolitan Area such as Portmarnock, Sutton, Malahide and Baldoyle. These towns are identified as consolidation areas within the Gateway in the current Development Plan. Policy for these towns is largely based on urban consolidation with growth related primarily to higher densities along public transport corridors.

Fingal County Council House Count Survey 2014

A house count survey carried out in 2014 showed 96,049 Urban Residential Units - 6,598 Rural Residential Units

FCC Household Count 2014

Age Dependency Ratios 2011









 

0-14 years

N

15-64 years

N

Over 65 years

N

Young age ratio

%

Old age ratio

%

Total

dependancy

ratio

%

Dublin City

80,029

381,093

66,490

21.0

17.4

38.4

Dún Laoghaire - Rathdown

37,535

138,854

29,872

27.0

21.5

48.5

Fingal

66,407

187,723

19,861

35.4

10.6

46.0

South

Dublin

61,281

180,871

23,053

33.9

12.7

46.6

Source: CSO

The age profile of the Fingal area as compared to the state average is as follows:

Source: Fingal Local Community Development Committee: Demographic and Socio-Economic Profile: Statistical Baseline

It is important that new housing meets the needs of all of the population and that there is a sufficient choice of house type/size and housing tenure. A recent study carried out by the Housing Agency has indicated that 57% of all households in the Dublin Region will be for one and two person households, while three person households will account for a further 18% . It is likely that a high proportion of the 18% may be in Fingal but there should be choice so that people can move freely within the area in which they live, as their needs and circumstances change.

Housing Tenure




Housing Tenure

% in Fingal

Owner occupied without loan or mortgage

23

Owner occupied with loan or mortgage

47

Rented from private landlord

22

Rented from a Local Authority

5

Rented from a Voluntary Body

0.8

Occupied free of rent

0.8

Not stated

1

Source: Census 2011

Fingal County Housing Assessment 2017-2023

The estimate of the required projected supply of social housing provision for Fingal County for 2017 to 2023 is based on the application of the methodology developed by the Department of the Environment and Local Government model based on the application the “Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, Housing Supply: A Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide” (December, 2000).

The following sets out the principal steps involved in the development and application of this model and the associated calculation, determination and summary output tables.

Key Assumptions Used:

Fertility

Two Total Fertility Rate (TFR) assumptions are put forward by the CSO in the regional projections:

F1: TFR to remain at its 2010 level of 2.1 for the lifetime of the projections (CSO 2016 - 2031).

F2: TFR to decrease from its 2010 level of 2.1 to 1.8 by 2026 and remain constant thereafter.

Fingal County is currently above 2.1 TFR (2.16 TFR in 2011). It was therefore decided to generate the scenarios in line with the F1 assumption for fertility, as it is not held to be likely that Fingal’s TFR will decline to 1.8 within the period. Therefore, a gradual reduction per annum to 2025 was applied.

Mortality

The national mortality assumptions were adopted for each of the projected scenarios. Under these assumptions, the estimated rate of improvement for each sex at each age was factored into the modelling process. Graduated tables of age-specific rates of mortality and survivorship post 2031 were maintained as constant for each subsequent year of the period.

Male Rate of decrease in mortality: 3.5% per annum from the 2010 levels

Female Rate of decrease in mortality: 2.5% per annum from the 2010 levels

As consistent with gains in life expectancy at birth from:

Males: 78.3 years in 2011 to 83.0 years by 2031

Females: 82.9 years in 2011 to 86.6 years by 2031

Migration

The published CSO inter-regional patterns for migration, between the period 1996 to 2011, reveal a fairly stable picture in terms of the magnitude of movement between regions, with the Dublin Region and Mid-East Region showing a net inward migration and the other regions showing a net outward flow.

The general consensus (of the CSO expert group) is such that both Dublin and the Mid-East are likely to continue to grow in the medium to long term. This forms the basis of utilising the M2 migration assumption. However, there are further inter-regional assumptions available leading to the branching of the M2 into a High, Medium and Low spread; called ‘Modified’, ‘Traditional’ and ‘Recent’ respectively. Recall:

  • ‘Modified’ sees a pattern of increased movements into Dublin applied at the expense of all other regions with the exception of the Mid-East.
  • ‘Traditional’ sees a gradual reversal to the stable 1996 pattern of inter-regional flows by 2021 and is kept constant thereafter.
  • ‘Recent’ sees the pattern of inter-regional flows observed in the year to April 2011 applied up to 2031.

While the Recent inter-regional assumption yields higher numbers of net inward migrants to Fingal than the Traditional assumption, when taken in conjunction with the natural levels of growth, the Traditional assumptions surpasses the Recent, therefore, Traditional forms the [Medium] scenario.

Step 1: Determination of Annual Population Projections - Fingal County 2017-2023

Determination Method – determination of annual population based on an M2F1 Traditional population projection scenario. This M2F1 Traditional scenario reflects a “medium” growth projection for the county based on the following:

  • Moderate natural growth with stable migration and standard mortality – M2.
  • Total fertility rate decrease to 2.1 by 2026 and remain constant thereafter – F1.
  • ‘Traditional’ sees a gradual reversal to the stable 1996 pattern of inter-regional flows by 2021 and is kept constant thereafter.

Key Information Inputs – data input from Central Statistics Office (CSO), Fingal County Council.

Table 1: Annual Population Projections








Year

Fingal County Population Total

Percentage Increase

Annual Population Increase During Year

Total

Population Increase 2017-2023

Total

Population

Increase 2011-2023

2017

290,462

1.31%

4,121

 

 

2018

294,582

1.42%

4,178

 

 

2019

298,761

1.42%

4,257

 

 

2020

303,018

1.42%

4,377

 

 

2021

307,395

1.44%

4,272

 

 

2022

311,667

1.39%

4,197

 

 

2023

315,864

1.35%

4,152

25,403

41,873

Step 2: Determination of Average Household Size and Additional Households Required - Fingal County 2017 - 2023

Determination Method – determination of annual household increase based on the application of an average household size for the projected population.

Key Information Inputs – data input from Fingal County Council.

Table 2: Average Household Size and Additional Households Required - Fingal County 2017 2023








Year

Fingal

County Population - Total

Number of Households (Private)

Average Household Size

Additional Houses Required Per

Annum

Total Additional Houses Required - 2017-2023

2017

290,462

99,455

2.92

1,404

-

2018

294,582

100,987

2.92

1,532

-

2019

298,761

102,543

2.91

1,555

-

2020

303,018

104,129

2.91

1,586

-

2021

307,395

105,760

2.91

1,631

-

2022

311,667

107,359

2.90

1,599

-

2023

315,864

108,919

2.90

1,559

10,866

Step 3: Calculation of Estimated Distribution of Household Disposable Incomes

Calculation Method – calculation of estimated distribution of household disposable incomes for 2011 for the 10 household deciles based on the weekly and annualised disposable incomes at national level and the adjusted to county level based on application of “inflator” rate.

Key Information Inputs – information/data inputs from DoE&LG “Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, Housing Supply: A Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide” (December, 2000), CSO “Household Budget Survey 2009-2010” (July 2012), CSO “County Incomes and Regional GDP 2011” (April, 2014).









Assumed Annual Percentage Income Increase from 2005 to 2010

Adjusted Average Weekly Disposable Income (State) (€) (2011)

Percentage of Households in Each Category (State)

Average Annual Disposable Income (State) (€) (2011)

Fingal County Inflator

Average Annual Disposable Income (Fingal County) (€) (2011)

Number of Households in Fingal County (2011)

3.76%

196.02

11.57%

10,193.05

1.119

11,409.47

10,777

4.60%

314.84

10.54%

16,371.68

1.119

18,325.45

9,818

4.02%

448.61

9.48%

23,327.82

1.119

26,111.73

8,830

2.49%

562.90

9.60%

29,270.75

1.119

32,763.89

8,942

1.31%

678.23

9.74%

35,267.91

1.119

39,476.74

9,072

0.59%

807.30

9.56%

41,979.71

1.119

46,989.51

8,905

0.45%

976.36

9.81%

50,770.85

1.119

56,829.78

9,138

0.28%

1,187.12

9.58%

61,730.31

1.119

69,097.13

8,923

0.73%

1,483.42

9.78%

77,137.80

1.119

86,343.33

9,110

0.51%

2,301.15

10.34%

119,659.74

1.119

133,939.79

9,631

 

 

100.00%

 

 

 

93,146

Calculation Method – calculation of estimated distribution of household disposable incomes for 2011 for the 10 household deciles based on the weekly and annualised disposable incomes at national level and the adjusted to county level based on application of “inflator” rate.

Key Information Inputs – information/data inputs from DoE&LG “Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, Housing Supply: A Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide” (December, 2000), CSO “Household Budget Survey 2009-2010” (July 2012), CSO “County Incomes and Regional GDP 2011” (April, 2014).

Calculation of Fingal County Inflator





Disposable Income Per Person - State (2011)

Disposable Income Per Person - Dublin City and County (2011)

Fingal County Inflator

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

19,055

21,329

1.119

Step 4: Calculation of Average Annual Household Disposable Income Distribution – Fingal County 2017 - 2023

Calculation Method – calculation of estimated distribution of household disposable incomes for 2017 - 2023 for the 10 household deciles based on the estimated distribution of household disposable incomes for 2011 and a forecast GNP growth rate.

Key Information Inputs – information/data inputs from DoE&LG “Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, Housing Supply: A Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide” (December, 2000), ESRI “Medium-Term Review - 2013-2020” (July 2013).

Table 4: Calculation of Average Annual Household Disposable Income Distribution










Year

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

% Growth

4.0%

3.4%

3.2%

3.6%

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

1st Decile

13,471

13,929

14,374

14,892

15,220

15,554

15,897

2nd Decile

21,636

22,372

23,088

23,919

24,445

24,983

25,532

3rd Decile

30,829

31,877

32,897

34,082

34,831

35,598

36,381

4th Decile

38,683

39,998

41,278

42,764

43,705

44,666

45,649

5th Decile

46,609

48,193

49,735

51,526

52,659

53,818

55,002

6th Decile

55,479

57,365

59,201

61,332

62,681

64,060

65,469

7th Decile

67,097

69,378

71,598

74,175

75,807

77,475

79,180

8th Decile

81,580

84,354

87,053

90,187

92,171

94,199

96,271

9th Decile

101,942

105,408

108,781

112,697

115,177

117,710

120,300

10th Decile

158,137

163,514

168,746

174,821

178,667

182,598

186,615

Step 5: Calculation of Average Monthly Household Disposable Income Distribution – Fingal County 2017 - 2023

Calculation Method – calculation of estimated distribution of household disposable incomes for 2017-2023 for the 10 household deciles based on the calculation of the average annual household disposable incomes 2017-2023.

Key Information Inputs – information/data inputs from DoE&LG “Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, Housing Supply: A Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide” (December, 2000).

Table 5: Calculation of Average Monthly Household Disposable Income Distribution











 

Year

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Range

Percentage of Households

in Each

Category

(Fingal County)

             

1st Decile

11.57%

1,123

1,161

1,198

1,241

1,268

1296

1,325

2nd Decile

10.54%

1,803

1,864

1,924

1,993

2,037

2082

2,128

3rd Decile

9.48%

2,569

2,656

2,741

2,840

2,903

2966

3,032

4th Decile

9.60%

3,224

3,333

3,440

3,564

3,642

3772

3,804

5th Decile

9.74%

3,884

4,016

4,145

4,294

4,388

4485

4,583

6th Decile

9.56%

4,623

4,780

4,933

5,111

5,223

5338

5,456

7th Decile

9.81%

5,591

5,781

5,966

6,181

6,317

6456

6,598

8th Decile

9.58%

6,798

7,029

7,254

7,516

7,681

7850

8,023

9th Decile

9.78%

8,495

8,784

9,065

9,391

9,598

9809

10,025

10th Decile

10.34%

13,178

13,626

14,062

14,568

14,889

15216

15,551

Step 6: Determination of Annual Income Distribution of Total Households – Fingal County 2017 - 2023

Determination Method – determination of annual income distribution of total household disposable incomes between the 10 household deciles for 2017-2023.

Key Information Inputs – information/data inputs from DoE&LG “Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, Housing Supply: A Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide” (December, 2000).

Table 6: Determination of Annual Income Distribution of Total Households











 

Year

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Range

Percentage of Households

in Each Category (Fingal

County)

             

1st Decile

11.57%

11,507

11,684

11,864

12,048

12,236

12421

12,602

2nd Decile

10.54%

10,483

10,644

10,808

10,975

11,147

11,316

11,480

3rd Decile

9.48%

9,428

9,574

9,721

9,871

10,026

10,178

10,325

4th Decile

9.60%

9,548

9,695

9,844

9,996

10,153

10,307

10,456

5th Decile

9.74%

9,687

9,836

9,988

10,142

10,301

10,457

10,609

6th Decile

9.56%

9,508

9,654

9,803

9,955

10,111

10,264

10,413

7th Decile

9.81%

9,757

9,907

10,059

10,215

10,375

10,532

10,685

8th Decile

9.58%

9,528

9,675

9,824

9,976

10,132

10,285

10,434

9th Decile

9.78%

9,727

9,877

10,029

10,184

10,343

10,500

10,652

10th Decile

10.34%

10,284

10,442

10,603

10,767

10,936

11,101

11,262

 

100.00%

99,455

100,987

102,543

104,129

105,760

107,359

108,919

Step 7: Determination of Annual Income Distribution of Additional Households – Fingal County 2017 - 2023

Determination Method – determination of annual income distribution of new additional household disposable incomes between the 10 household deciles for 2017-2023.

Key Information Inputs – information/data inputs from DoE&LG “Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, Housing Supply: A Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide” (December, 2000).

Table 7: Determination of Annual Income Distribution of Additional Households - Fingal County - 2017-2023











 

Year

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Income Range

Percentage

             

1st Decile

11.57%

162

177

180

184

189

185

180

2nd Decile

10.54%

148

161

164

167

172

169

164

3rd Decile

9.48%

133

145

147

150

155

152

148

4th Decile

9.60%

135

147

149

152

157

154

150

5th Decile

9.74%

137

149

151

154

159

156

152

6th Decile

9.56%

134

146

149

152

156

153

149

7th Decile

9.81%

138

150

153

156

160

157

153

8th Decile

9.58%

135

147

149

152

156

153

149

9th Decile

9.78%

137

150

152

155

160

156

152

10th Decile

10.34%

145

158

161

164

169

165

161

 

100.00%

1,404

1,532

1,555

1,586

1,631

1,599

1,559

Step 8: Calculation of Projected House Price Bands - Fingal County - 2008-2025

Calculation Method – calculation of projected house price bands based on the percentage split of the 8 price bands and a projected annual price increase or decrease for 2008-2025.

Key Information Inputs – information/data inputs from DoEC&LG “Database Direct for Housing Statistics ('Dublin Area' "Ranges of house prices") (October, 2015), CSO “House Price Index - 2008-2014” (2015), Davy “Property Price Outlook - 2015-2017” (September, 2013), Goodbody Economic Research “Irish Housing Market - From the ground up” (February, 2015).

Table 8: Calculation of Projected House Price Bands - Fingal County - 2008-2025

Year

Average Price Increase/Decrease

1st Band - not exceeding X1

2nd Band - X1-X2

3rd Band - X2-X3

4th Band - X3-X4

5th Band - X4-X5

6th Band - X5-X6

7th Band - X6-X7

8th Band - exceeding X7

2008

-

150,000

150,001

200,000

200,001

250,000

250,001

300,000

300,001

350,000

350,001

400,000

400,001

500,000

500,000

2009

-23.44%

114,840

114,841

153,120

153,121

191,400

191,401

229,680

229,681

267,960

267,961

306,240

306,241

382,800

382,800

2010

-15.58%

96,948

96,949

129,264

129,265

161,580

161,581

193,896

193,897

226,212

226,212

258,528

258,528

323,160

323,160

2011

-14.09%

83,288

83,289

111,051

111,051

138,813

138,814

166,576

166,576

194,339

194,339

222,101

222,102

277,627

277,627

2012

-13.68%

71,894

71,895

95,859

95,859

119,824

119,824

143,788

143,789

167,753

167,754

191,718

191,718

239,647

239,647

2013

7.38%

77,200

77,200

102,933

102,934

128,667

128,667

154,400

154,400

180,133

180,134

205,867

205,867

257,333

257,333

2014

20.45%

92,987

92,988

123,983

123,984

154,979

154,980

185,975

185,975

216,970

216,971

247,966

247,967

309,958

309,958

2015

9.00%

101,356

101,357

135,142

135,142

168,927

168,928

202,712

202,713

236,498

236,499

270,283

270,284

337,854

337,854

2016

5.00%

106,424

106,425

141,899

141,899

177,373

177,374

212,848

212,849

248,323

248,323

283,797

283,798

354,747

354,747

2017

4.00%

110,681

110,682

147,575

147,575

184,468

184,469

221,362

221,363

258,256

258,256

295,149

295,150

368,937

368,937

2018

4.00%

115,108

115,109

153,478

153,478

191,847

191,848

230,216

230,217

268,586

268,587

306,955

306,956

383,694

383,694

2019

4.00%

119,713

119,713

159,617

159,618

199,521

199,522

239,425

239,426

279,329

279,330

319,233

319,234

399,042

399,042

2020

4.00%

124,501

124,502

166,001

166,002

207,502

207,503

249,002

249,003

290,502

290,503

332,003

332,004

415,004

415,004

2021

4.00%

129,481

129,482

172,641

172,642

215,802

215,803

258,962

258,963

302,123

302,123

345,283

345,284

431,604

431,604

2022

4.00%

134,660

134,661

179,547

179,548

224,434

224,435

269,321

269,322

314,207

314,208

359,094

359,095

448,868

448,868

2023

4.00%

140,047

140,048

186,729

186,730

233,411

233,412

280,094

280,094

326,776

326,777

373,458

373,459

466,823

466,823

2024

4.00%

145,649

145,650

194,198

194,199

242,748

242,749

291,297

291,298

339,847

339,848

388,396

388,397

485,495

485,495

2025

4.00%

151,475

151,476

201,966

201,967

252,458

252,459

302,949

302,950

353,441

353,442

403,932

403,933

504,915

504,915

% of Fingal County Housing Units within each Band (2008) - based on "Dublin Area"

1.00%

3.00%

7.00%

15.00%

17.00%

15.00%

17.00%

25.00%

Step 9: Application and Variables of the Annuity Formula

Application Method – apply the “Annuity Formula” based on the determination of an “Affordability Threshold”, a “Loan to Value Ratio”, an “Annual Percentage Rate (APR) - Interest Rate”, the determination of a “Monthly Percentage Rate (MPR) - Interest Rate”, and the determination of a “Loan Term (Years/Months)”.

Key Information Inputs – information/data inputs from DoE&LG “Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, Housing Supply: A Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide” (December, 2000).

Table 9: Application and Variables of the Annuity Formula








Affordability Threshold

Loan to Value Ratio

Annual Percentage Rate (APR) - Interest Rate

Therefore Monthly Percentage Rate (MPR) - Interest Rate

Loan Term

(Years)

Therefore Term Loan (Months)

35.00%

0.80

0.0395

0.003292

25

300

Step 10: Calculation of Housing Affordability - Fingal County - 2012-2025

Calculation Method – based on the application of the “Annuity Formula” calculate the housing affordability for each of the 10 household deciles for 2012-2025.

Key Information Inputs – information/data inputs from DoE&LG “Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, Housing Supply: A Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide” (December, 2000).

Table 10: Calculation of Housing Affordability - Fingal County - 2012-2025


















 

YEAR

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Range

Percentage of Households in Each Category (Fingal County)

Approximate Affordable House Price - Fingal County - 2012-2025 (€)

1st Decile

11.57%

81,835

82,817

83,231

86,810

89,935

93,532

96,712

99,807

103,400

105,675

108,000

110,376

112,804

115,286

2nd Decile

10.54%

131,440

133,017

133,682

139,430

144,450

150,228

155,336

160,306

166,077

169,731

173,465

177,281

181,182

185,168

3rd Decile

9.48%

187,287

189,534

190,482

198,673

205,825

214,058

221,336

228,419

236,642

241,848

247,168

252,606

258,164

263,843

4th Decile

9.60%

235,000

237,820

239,009

249,286

258,260

268,591

277,723

286,610

296,928

303,460

310,136

316,959

323,933

331,059

5th Decile

9.74%

283,148

286,545

287,978

300,361

311,174

323,621

334,624

345,332

357,764

365,635

373,679

381,900

390,302

398,888

6th Decile

9.56%

337,033

341,078

342,783

357,523

370,393

385,209

398,306

411,052

425,850

435,219

444,793

454,579

464,580

474,800

7th Decile

9.81%

407,613

412,504

414,566

432,393

447,959

465,877

481,717

497,132

515,029

526,360

537,939

549,774

561,869

574,230

8th Decile

9.58%

495,600

501,548

504,055

525,730

544,656

566,442

585,701

604,444

626,204

639,980

654,060

668,449

683,155

698,184

9th Decile

9.78%

619,299

626,731

629,864

656,949

680,599

707,823

731,889

755,309

782,500

799,715

817,309

835,290

853,666

872,447

10th Decile

10.34%

960,686

972,214

977,075

1,019,089

1,055,776

1,098,007

1,135,340

1,171,670

1,213,851

1,240,555

1,267,848

1,295,740

1,324,246

1,353,380

Step 11: Calculation of Projected Social Housing Need - Fingal County - 2012-2025

Calculation Method – based on the determination of additional households required, the projected house price bands and the housing affordability, calculate the number of households not meeting the “Affordability Criteria” for 2012-2025.

Key Information Inputs – information/data inputs from DoE&LG “Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, Housing Supply: A Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide” (December, 2000). “Database Direct for Housing Statistics ('Dublin Area' "Ranges of house prices") (October, 2015).

Table 11: Calculation of Projected Social Housing Need - Fingal County 2012-2025

Year

Range

No. of Households Required

Runnig Total

Affordability by each Decile

Household Band Position

House Prices Bands - Upper Value

No. of Houses Required within each Band

% of Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

No. Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

Housing Shortfall - i.e.

No. of Households Meeting Affordability Criteria

Housing Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required

2012

1st Decile

80

80

81,835

1st & 2nd Bands

95,859

112

4.00%

28

84

12.12%

2nd Decile

73

154

131,440

3rd & 4th Bands

143,788

56

22.00%

153

-96

-

3rd Decile

66

219

187,287

5th & 6th Bands

191,718

65

32.00%

222

-157

-

4th Decile

67

286

235,000

7th Band

239,647

66

17.00%

118

-52

-

5th Decile

68

354

283,148

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

174

-

-

6th Decile

66

420

337,033

7th Decile

68

488

407,613

8th Decile

67

555

495,600

9th Decile

68

623

619,299

10th Decile

72

695

960,686

 

695

         

100.00%

695

 

12.12%

2013

1st Decile

91

91

82,817

1st & 2nd Bands

102,933

134

4.00%

31

103

13.11%

2nd Decile

83

173

133,017

3rd & 4th Bands

154,400

68

22.00%

172

-105

-

3rd Decile

74

247

189,534

5th & 6th Bands

205,867

78

32.00%

251

-173

-

4th Decile

75

322

237,820

7th Band

257,333

79

17.00%

133

-54

-

5th Decile

76

399

286,545

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

196

-

-

6th Decile

75

474

341,078

7th Decile

77

550

412,504

8th Decile

75

625

501,548

9th Decile

77

702

626,731

10th Decile

81

783

972,214

 

783

         

100.00%

783

 

13.11%

Year

Range

No. of Households Required

Runnig Total

Affordability by each Decile

Household Band Position

House Prices Bands - Upper Value

No. of Houses Required within each Band

% of Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

No. Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

Housing Shortfall - i.e.

No. of Households Meeting Affordability Criteria

Housing Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required

2014

1st Decile

113

113

83,231

1st Band

92,987

150

1.00%

10

140

14.38%

2nd Decile

103

215

133,682

2nd & 3rd Bands

154,979

100

10.00%

97

3

0.32%

3rd Decile

92

307

190,482

4th & 5th Bands

216,970

114

32.00%

311

-198

-

4th Decile

93

401

239,009

6th Band

247,966

63

15.00%

146

-83

-

5th Decile

95

495

287,978

7th Band

309,958

105

17.00%

165

-60

-

6th Decile

93

588

342,783

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

243

-

-

7th Decile

95

684

414,566

8th Decile

93

777

504,055

9th Decile

95

872

629,864

10th Decile

101

973

977,075

 

973

         

100.00%

973

 

14.70%

2015

1st Decile

133

133

86,810

1st Band

101,356

184

1.00%

11

173

15.07%

2nd Decile

121

254

139,430

2nd & 3rd Bands

168,927

124

10.00%

115

9

0.79%

3rd Decile

109

362

198,673

4th Band

202,712

76

15.00%

172

-96

-

4th Decile

110

472

249,286

5th & 6th Bands

270,283

141

32.00%

367

-225

-

5th Decile

112

584

300,361

7th Band

337,854

130

17.00%

195

-65

-

6th Decile

110

694

357,523

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

287

-

-

7th Decile

112

806

432,393

8th Decile

110

916

525,730

9th Decile

112

1,028

656,949

10th Decile

119

1,147

1,019,089

10th Decile

72

695

960,686

 

1,147

         

100.00%

1,147

 

15.86%

Year

Range

No. of Households Required

Runnig Total

Affordability by each Decile

Household Band Position

House Prices Bands - Upper Value

No. of Houses Required within each Band

% of Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

No. Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

Housing Shortfall - i.e.

No. of Households Meeting Affordability Criteria

Housing Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required

2016

1st Decile

151

151

89,935

1st Band

106,424

213

1.00%

13

200

15.29%

2nd Decile

138

289

144,450

2nd & 3rd Bands

177,373

143

10.00%

131

12

0.93%

3rd Decile

124

413

205,825

4th Band

212,848

88

15.00%

196

-108

-

4th Decile

126

539

258,260

5th & 6th Bands

283,797

164

32.00%

419

-255

-

5th Decile

127

666

311,174

7th Band

354,747

150

17.00%

222

-72

-

6th Decile

125

791

370,393

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

327

-

-

7th Decile

128

920

447,959

8th Decile

125

1,045

544,656

9th Decile

128

1,173

680,599

10th Decile

135

1,308

1,055,776

 

1,308

         

100.00%

1,308

 

16.22%

2017

1st Decile

162

162

93,532

1st Band

110,681

229

1.00%

14

215

15.29%

2nd Decile

148

310

150,228

2nd & 3rd Bands

184,468

154

10.00%

140

13

0.93%

3rd Decile

133

444

214,058

4th Band

221,362

94

15.00%

211

-116

-

4th Decile

135

578

268,591

5th & 6th Bands

295,149

176

32.00%

449

-274

-

5th Decile

137

715

323,621

7th Band

368,937

161

17.00%

239

-77

-

6th Decile

134

849

385,209

th Band

None

-

25.00%

351

-

-

7th Decile

138

987

465,877

8th Decile

135

1,122

566,442

9th Decile

137

1,259

707,823

10th Decile

145

1,404

1,098,007

 

1,404

         

100.00%

1,404

 

16.22%

Year

Range

No. of Households Required

Runnig Total

Affordability by each Decile

Household Band Position

House Prices Bands - Upper Value

No. of Houses Required within each Band

% of Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

No. Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

Housing Shortfall - i.e.

No. of Households Meeting Affordability Criteria

Housing Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required

2018

1st Decile

177

177

96,712

1st Band

115,108

251

1.00%

15

236

15.38%

2nd Decile

161

339

155,336

2nd & 3rd Bands

191,847

168

10.00%

153

15

1.00%

3rd Decile

145

484

221,336

4th Band

230,216

104

15.00%

230

-126

-

4th Decile

147

631

277,723

5th & 6th Bands

306,955

193

32.00%

490

-298

-

6th Decile

146

927

398,306

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

383

-

-

7th Decile

150

1,077

481,717

8th Decile

147

1,224

585,701

9th Decile

150

1,374

731,889

10th Decile

158

1,532

1,135,340

 

1,532

         

100.00%

1,532

 

16.38%

2019

1st Decile

180

180

99,807

1st Band

119,713

257

1.00%

16

241

15.51%

2nd Decile

164

344

160,306

2nd & 3rd Bands

199,521

172

10.00%

156

17

1.08%

3rd Decile

147

491

228,419

4th Band

239,425

106

15.00%

233

-127

-

4th Decile

149

641

286,610

5th & 6th Bands

319,233

197

32.00%

498

-301

-

5th Decile

151

792

345,332

7th Band

399,042

181

17.00%

264

-83

-

6th Decile

149

941

411,052

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

389

-

-

7th Decile

153

1,093

497,132

8th Decile

149

1,242

604,444

9th Decile

152

1,395

755,309

10th Decile

161

1,555

1,171,670

10th Decile

72

695

960,686

 

1,555

         

100.00%

1,555

 

16.59%

Year

Range

No. of Households Required

Runnig Total

Affordability by each Decile

Household Band Position

House Prices Bands - Upper Value

No. of Houses Required within each Band

% of Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

No. Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

Housing Shortfall - i.e.

No. of Households Meeting Affordability Criteria

Housing Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required

2020

1st Decile

184

184

103,400

1st Band

124,501

263

1.00%

16

247

15.57%

2nd Decile

167

351

166,077

2nd & 3rd Bands

207,502

176

10.00%

159

18

1.13%

3rd Decile

150

501

236,642

4th Band

249,002

109

15.00%

238

-129

-

4th Decile

152

653

296,928

5th & 6th Bands

332,003

202

32.00%

508

-306

-

6th Decile

152

959

425,850

7th Band

415,004

185

17.00%

270

-

-

7th Decile

156

1,115

515,029

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

397

-

-

8th Decile

152

1,267

626,204

9th Decile

155

1,422

782,500

10th Decile

164

1,586

1,213,851

10th Decile

135

1,308

1,055,776

 

1,586

         

100.00%

1,586

 

16.70%

2021

1st Decile

162

162

93,532

1st Band

110,681

229

1.00%

14

215

15.29%

2nd Decile

148

310

150,228

2nd & 3rd Bands

184,468

154

10.00%

140

13

0.93%

3rd Decile

133

444

214,058

4th Band

221,362

94

15.00%

211

-116

-

4th Decile

135

578

268,591

5th & 6th Bands

295,149

176

32.00%

449

-274

-

5th Decile

137

715

323,621

7th Band

368,937

161

17.00%

239

-77

-

6th Decile

134

849

385,209

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

351

-

-

7th Decile

138

987

465,877

8th Decile

135

1,122

566,442

9th Decile

137

1,259

707,823

10th Decile

145

1,404

1,098,007

 

1,404

         

100.00%

1,404

 

16.22%

Year

Range

No. of Households Required

Runnig Total

Affordability by each Decile

Household Band Position

House Prices Bands - Upper Value

No. of Houses Required within each Band

% of Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

No. Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

Housing Shortfall - i.e.

No. of Households Meeting Affordability Criteria

Housing Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required

2022

1st Decile

185

185

108,000

1st Band

134,660

274

1.00%

16

258

16.16%

2nd Decile

169

354

173,465

2nd Band

179,547

92

3.00%

48

45

2.78%

3rd Decile

152

505

247,168

3rd & 4th Bands

269,321

205

22.00%

352

-147

-

4th Decile

154

659

310,136

5th Band

314,207

113

17.00%

272

-159

-

5th Decile

159

831

365,635

6th & 7th Bands

448,868

253

32.00%

512

-259

-

6th Decile

156

987

435,219

7th Decile

160

1,147

526,360

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

400

-

-

8th Decile

156

1,303

639,980

9th Decile

160

1,463

799,715

10th Decile

169

1,631

1,240,555

 

1,599

         

100.00%

1,599

 

18.95%

2023

1st Decile

180

180

110,376

1st Band

140,047

272

1.00%

16

257

16.47%

2nd Decile

164

345

177,281

2nd Band

186,729

92

3.00%

47

45

2.89%

3rd Decile

148

493

252,606

3rd & 4th Bands

280,094

203

22.00%

343

-140

-

4th Decile

150

642

316,959

5th Band

326,776

112

17.00%

265

-153

-

5th Decile

152

794

381,900

6th & 7th Bands

466,823

251

32.00%

499

-248

-

6th Decile

149

943

454,579

7th Decile

153

1,096

549,774

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

390

-

-

8th Decile

149

1,246

668,449

9th Decile

152

1,398

835,290

10th Decile

161

1,559

1,295,740

10th Decile

72

695

960,686

 

1,559

         

100.00%

1,559

 

19.35%

Year

Range

No. of Households Required

Runnig Total

Affordability by each Decile

Household Band Position

House Prices Bands - Upper Value

No. of Houses Required within each Band

% of Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

No. Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band

Housing Shortfall - i.e.

No. of Households Meeting Affordability Criteria

Housing Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required

2024

1st Decile

166

166

112,804

1st Band

145,649

254

1.00%

14

240

16.77%

2nd Decile

151

317

181,182

2nd Band

194,198

86

3.00%

43

43

2.99%

3rd Decile

136

452

258,164

3rd & 4th Bands

291,297

190

22.00%

315

-125

-

4th Decile

137

590

323,933

5th Band

339,847

105

17.00%

243

-139

-

5th Decile

139

729

390,302

6th & 7th Bands

485,495

270

32.00%

458

-

-

6th Decile

137

866

464,580

7th Decile

140

1,007

561,869

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

358

-

-

8th Decile

137

1,144

683,155

9th Decile

140

1,284

853,666

10th Decile

148

1,432

1,324,246

 

1,432

         

100.00%

1,432

 

19.76%

2025

1st Decile

165

165

115,286

1st Band

151,475

257

1.00%

14

243

17.09%

2nd Decile

150

315

185,168

2nd Band

201,966

87

3.00%

43

44

3.09%

3rd Decile

135

449

263,843

3rd & 4th Bands

302,949

192

22.00%

313

-121

-

4th Decile

137

586

331,059

5th Band

353,441

106

17.00%

242

-136

-

5th Decile

139

724

398,888

6th Band

403,932

90

15.00%

213

-123

-

6th Decile

136

860

474,800

7th Band

504,915

147

17.00%

242

-95

-

7th Decile

140

1,000

574,230

8th Band

None

-

25.00%

356

-

-

8th Decile

136

1,136

698,184

9th Decile

139

1,275

872,447

10th Decile

147

1,422

1,353,380

 

1,422

         

100.00%

1,422

 

20.18%

Step 12: Summary of Projected Social Housing Need - Fingal County - 2017-2023

Determination Method – based on the application of the “Annuity Formula” calculate the housing affordability for each of the 10 household deciles for 2017-2023.

Key Information Inputs – information/data inputs from Fingal County Council, DoE&LG “Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, Housing Supply: A Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide” (December, 2000).

The table below sets out the annual determined new household formations in Fingal County and the associated projected social housing requirements for the period 2017 to 2023. The annual social household units and related percentage shortfall range from between 215 and 257 units and 15.29% and 16.47%, respectively. These annual household units reflect the projected extent of ‘housing need’ arising for households in Fingal County that are additional to the current extent of unmet need. In effect, these household units are the net annual increase projected for social housing.

Table 12: Summary of Projected Social Housing Need - Fingal County - 2017-2023










 

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

New Household Formations

1,404

1,532

1,555

1,586

1,631

1,599

1,559

Social Housing Requirement

215

236

241

247

259

258

257

Housing

Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required

15.29%

15.38%

15.51%

15.57%

15.87%

16.16%

16.47%

The projected ‘housing need’ is based on the relationship between the following key variables:

  • Annual population projections, determination of average household size and the resulting number of additional households required to accommodate the projected growth;
  • Assessment of the levels of projected household disposal income; and,
  • Projection of annual house price change.

Based on these variables and the application of the standard “best practice”, housing analysis modelling enables the determination of the number of projected households that will not be in a position to afford the market purchase of a housing unit in a given year, and this is expressed as the number of housing units required to be provided socially, as set out in the table above.

Analysis of Social Housing Demand and Supply

The provision of social housing for those who are unable to provide housing for themselves remains a high priority. This can be achieved by providing income support to secure and to retain private accommodation and provision of social housing. The aim would be for every household that has a need, to be able to access an affordable home of good quality which is suited to their needs and in a secure environment.

Fingal County Council strives to fulfil this aim by:

  • Construction and purchase of new accommodation/second hand 
  • Provision of social housing in partnership with Approved Housing Bodies
  • Provision of social houses under Part V of the Planning & Development Acts & Urban Regeneration and Housing Act 2015
  • The Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS)
  • Long-Term Leasing (LTL)
  • Housing Assistance Payment
  • Optimum management of existing housing stock

Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS)

RAS is designed to provide security of tenure in good quality accommodation for eligible tenants in the private rented sector. Under RAS, eligible tenants and their landlords become RAS clients. Eligible tenants are those in receipt of Rent Supplement for more than 18 months and in need of long-term housing. The rent negotiated between the Council and the landlord is paid monthly by the Council directly to the landlord for the duration of the RAS contract.

The tenant contributes to the rent but pays it to the Local Authority, not the landlord. Under RAS the landlord and tenant retain all duties and responsibilities under Landlord and Tenant law. The Residential Tenancies Act 2004 governs the relationship between the landlord and the tenant. Under RAS Local Authorities make agreements with private landlords (or voluntary bodies) to provide accommodation on a medium-to-long-term basis, i.e. a 4-year agreement or a 10 year agreement.

Housing Assistance Payment (HAP)

It is expected that HAP - will be rolled out by Fingal County Council in 2016. The Government acknowledged in the Housing Policy Statement that Rent Supplement, which was always intended as a short-term income support, had actually become a long-term social housing support.

The introduction of HAP will mean that local authorities can now provide housing assistance for households who qualify for social housing support, including many long-term rent supplement recipients. Under HAP, Local Authorities will make the full rent payment on behalf of the HAP recipient directly to the landlord. The HAP recipient will then pay a rent contribution to the Local Authorities. The rent contribution is a differential rent – that is, a rent based on income and the ability to pay.

There are currently 5,348 households in receipt of rent supplement in the Fingal area.

Social Housing Leasing Initiative (SHLI)

In order to increase the availability of properties for social housing provision, the DoECLG, launched the SHLI in 2009. This involves Housing Authorities leasing properties from private property owners for the purposes of providing accommodation to households on social housing waiting lists. Leasing introduces greater flexibility in the composition of the housing stock and provides the opportunity for housing authorities to benefit from market conditions to increase output and meet housing need in a cost effective manner.

Access to housing stock is achieved through a number of ways:

  • Local Authorities leasing properties from private property owners for periods of 10-20 years under the Long Term Leasing (LTL) scheme
  • Approved Housing Bodies leasing from property owners, purchasing on the market or constructing properties and making them available for social housing provision through direct agreements with the DoECLG.
  • Local Authorities temporarily utilising unsold affordable housing stock.

Approved Housing Bodies (AHBs)

The Social Housing Strategy 2020 envisages an enhanced role for the AHBs in the provision of social housing supports in the future. New financial mechanisms were introduced in 2011 (CALF and P&A Agreements) to facilitate borrowing for the supply of new social housing units by the AHBs.

A consultation process took place between the AHBs and the Council as part of the development of this Strategy. A number of Approved Housing Bodies submitted their views on how Fingal County Council could best address the current housing demand. Amongst the detailed responses received were:

  • Continued collaboration between Fingal , AHBs and developers to deliver units through Part V and CAS/CALF
  • Partnerships between AHBs to provide social housing units
  • Support and priority for those with a special housing need in particular with regard to location and accessibility.

The Council will continue to work in partnership with the AHB sector in order to fully realise its capabilities in social housing management and acquisition.

Provision of Social Housing

There are 9,103 households on the Fingal Social Housing List (November 2015). The estimate of the required projected supply of social housing provision for Fingal County Council for the period 2016 – 2023 has been projected as being 1,913 households. This realises a need of 11,016 social housing units over the period 2016 – 2023.

The targets for delivery of Social Housing Strategy 2015 – 2017 as set out by the DOECLG in April 2015 outlined a target of 1,376 social housing units to be provided by Fingal County Council. The Council projects that 1,611 units will be provided in the County during this timeframe. These units will be provided under various headings such as HAP, Part V, Construction, Acquisitions and by Approved Housing Bodies. Using this delivery method, the Council anticipates that a further 9,403 social housing units will be delivered to meet the projected need for the period 2018 – 2023.

The following table provides detail of the delivery of social housing units for 2016 – 2023.




Social Housing Demand 2017 – 2023

 

2016 – 2023 social housing need

1,913

Current social housing list @ Nov 2015

9,103

TOTAL

11,016




Social Housing Demand 2017 – 2023

 

Targets for delivery to end 2017

1,611

Housing Assistance Payment, RAS + LTL

5,348

RAS + LTL

566

Part V

1,800

Construction FCC

390

Acquisitions FCC

352

Approved Housing Bodies

1,214

TOTAL

11,281

It should be noted that delivery of units via the schemes outlined is dependent on sufficient funding being made available from central Government and the implementation of the Housing Assistance Payment Scheme in the Fingal area. The delivery of units via Part V is dependent on the continued increase in private house construction in the County.

Specific Social Housing Needs

Homeless Accommodation Supply and Demand

The Dublin Regional Homeless Executive is a shared service operating under the aegis of Dublin City Council, as the lead statutory authority in the Dublin region, in respect of the co-ordination of responses to Homelessness.

The provision of all emergency accommodation is provided by the Dublin Regional Homeless Executive Central Placement Service on behalf of the four Dublin Local Authorities who work closely together on a daily basis in order to respond to emergency need. All requests for emergency accommodation for clients assessed as homeless are made by Fingal County Council in collaboration with the Central Placement Service.

The Sustaining the Pathway to Home - Homeless Action Plan Framework for Dublin 2014-2016 was developed throughout 2013, by the Dublin Joint Homeless Consultative Forum and Statutory Management Group. It was informed by submissions from members of the public, including community and voluntary agencies alongside elected representatives and most importantly homeless service users themselves.

The plan sets out the strategic aims for core actions that are required to address regional objectives. Partnership and collaborative working between the voluntary and statutory sections is vital to delivering the strategic aims set out in the Framework Action Plan and this work is continuing.

Key Points of Pathways to Home Model
  • Prevention of homelessness in the first instance
  • Effective response to the homeless through holistic assessment following contact
  • Providing that there is a care and case management approach towards a person’s move to independent living with supports

Traveller Accommodation

The Housing (Traveller Accommodation) Act 1998 requires Housing Authorities in consultation with travellers and with the general public to prepare and adopt a five year Traveller Accommodation Programme (by resolution of the elected members of the Council) to meet the existing and projected needs of travellers in the area.

A census carried out by Fingal County Council in November 2014 showed that there were 456 Travelling Families living in the County. A new census is scheduled to be carried out in December 2015.

The County’s Traveller Accommodation Programme 2014-2018 sets Council policy regarding the provision of traveller accommodation and also through an assessment of accommodation needs.

Annual Targets for Traveller Accommodation

The annual targets for the delivery of Traveller specific accommodation are shown in in the table below.

Traveller Specific accommodation – Annual Targets








 

Number of Units

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Group Housing (new)

 

16

12

14

30

Group Housing (refurbishment)

 

6

4

9

4

 

Halting Site (refurbishment)

 

11

25

5

   

Total

17

46

26

18

30

Source: Fingal County Council Traveller Accommodation Programme 2014 – 2018

The Assessment of Needs survey completed for the Traveller Accommodation Programme 2014-2018 indicated that 411 Traveller families resided in Fingal during this period. All families were surveyed and 303 of the total families (74% return) canvassed expressed varying preferences for accommodation within Fingal County.

Housing Preferences of Traveller Families







 

Remain in

Current

Accommodation

Standard Housing

Group

Housing

Halting Sites

Number of Families

147

100

50

6

Percentage

49%

33%

17%

2%

Source: Fingal County Council Traveller Accommodation Programme 2014 – 2018

Disability Housing

Fingal County Council is committed to implementing the framework for the delivery of housing for persons with disabilities set out under the ‘National Housing Strategy for People with Disability 2011-16’. In the Strategy the term “disability” is used to refer to persons in one or more of the following categories of disability: sensory disability, mental health disability, physical disability and intellectual disability.

Fingal County Council is currently developing a Housing Strategy for People with Disabilities. It is intended that this strategy will form an integral part of the Housing Services Plans and will promote and support the delivery of accommodation for people with disabilities using all appropriate housing supply mechanisms. This strategy will also support longer term strategic planning.

No. of individuals with a Disability on the Fingal Housing List (November 2015)







 

Physical

Intellectual

Mental Health

Sensory

FCC Housing List

95

14

15

2







 

Physical

Intellectual

Mental Health

Sensory

Congregated Settings

16

288

0

0

A large number of the people with intellectual disability also have mental health issues

There are a number of grants also available to assist those living in Fingal with a disability including the Housing Adaption Grant.

Current grants awarded 2015 and projections for 2016 -2019








Housing Adaptation Grants

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Small Works

89

92

94

96

98

Major Works

62

64

66

68

70

Mobility Aids Grants

50

52

54

56

58

Total

201

208

214

220

226

Source: FCC Disability Housing Needs Statistics

 

Housing the Elderly in Fingal

The elderly accounts for approximately 11% of housing need in Fingal as per Census 2011. Estimates by the CSO indicate that the number of older people will almost double in all regions of Ireland from 2006 -2026. The Council has circa 700 tenancies registered to tenants with this age profile.

Housing Needs Assessment 2013 – Fingal Elderly Age profile




50 but less than 60:

469

60 but less than 70:

160

70 and over:

40

TOTAL

669

Source: Fingal Age Friendly Housing Sub Committee 2015

The FINGAL Age Friendly Strategy 2014-2019

On the 29th of September 2011 Fingal Development Board and Fingal County Council jointly signed the Dublin Declaration on Age Friendly Cities and Communities, a World Health Organisation Initiative. Both have engaged in the process of development of the Fingal Age Friendly County Initiative to achieve the following actions:

  • Engage with Agencies in Fingal representing and working with older people
  • Form a Fingal Age Friendly Alliance
  • Engage with Service Providers
  • Establish a baseline of services and policies concerning older people
  • Engage with older people regarding their needs and their inputs to the strategy by conducting a survey and consultation.
  • Conduct a SWOT analysis to identify Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats
  • Draft a Strategy and submit to the Fingal Age Friendly Alliance for agreement
  • Launch the Fingal Age Friendly County Strategy
  • Implement the Age Friendly Strategy 2014 – 2019
  • An Interagency Housing Sub-Committee has recently been established under the aegis of the Age Friendly Alliance

There are also a number of grants available to help the Elderly including the Housing Aid for Older People grant.

Empty Nesters Scheme

Fingal County Council operates a ‘Financial Contribution Scheme’ whereby persons of senior citizen age who own their own dwelling in the County area and who find their dwellings too large for their needs, may request the Council to purchase their dwelling and be allowed to rent a Council senior citizen dwelling, subject to the payment of a financial contribution which is set at 1/3 of the net proceeds of the sale price. This scheme is considered by the Council to be an important method of sourcing family type houses for letting while at the same time making a positive impact on reducing the significant number of under-occupied dwellings in the County.

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Fingal housing plan. There is a significant lack of housing in the Fingal area coupled with a huge demand for suitable affordable housing for families
There is a significant lack of suitable affordable housing in the Fingal area as witnessed by the vast amount of young families who are renting in the area and being cripples with huge unfailr rent...